Corona-Market Madness

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    Corona-Market Madness

    Things just seem to be getting crazier and crazier by the day, ESPECIALLY at PWCC. The prices make no fucking sense to me! A PSA 7 Alifabolaget Pele went for $43,500 USD, and just a few months ago, it was worth under $10,000 USD, so this is mind-boggling! I don't want to waste time pointing out examples because most of you already know what's going on. So, here is the question: when are we going to peak? What are your predictions?
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    Re: Corona-Market Madness

    A lot of people have made a lot of money in the stock market these past 4 months. Interest rates are close to zero. You need places to invest your money to make some return. Stocks, real estate, bullion, what else? Modern prices are exploding. Why not invest in cards?
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    Re: Corona-Market Madness

    CuriousGeorge wrote:
    Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:56 pm
    A lot of people have made a lot of money in the stock market these past 4 months. Interest rates are close to zero. You need places to invest your money to make some return. Stocks, real estate, bullion, what else? Modern prices are exploding. Why not invest in cards?
    Cryptocurrency.....??!!

    Cards are definitely crazy, but I agree with Steven that they represent legitimate and tangible investments and people have really woke to that
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    Re: Corona-Market Madness

    I was listening to some guy talking about crypto...specifically bitcoin on bloomberg the other day...he described it as a "collectible."

    It's insane the stock market is where it is today as well as what's happened to many cards the last few months! I honestly think the youngsters are driving all this madness!
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    Re: Corona-Market Madness

    The Heritage auction tonight was nuts. Prices just seemed insane. This is far more than people spending money because of boredom. The only logical explanation to me during this pandemic is people need return on their money and they’re not getting it leaving the money in the bank so this is another alternative. Tech stocks soaring, stock market up 40% since March, gold at an all time high, the economy in tatters and millions of people out of work. At some point in the future perhaps we’ll be able to make sense of it all.
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    Re: Corona-Market Madness

    Heritage prices last night were nuts. I took down the t206 Lajoie portrait (for 20% more than it was worth but which needed to finish my set), but I had eyes for many others, all of which went for way more than I would have expected (even in today’s market). Seeing these prices, auction after auction, makes me feel like a should sell - we must be in a major bubble. But I don’t need the money right now and have no better alternative in which to put it anyway, so I won’t sell.
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    Re: Corona-Market Madness

    Smells like 2015/16 vintage rookie phenomenon all over again to me... Anyone have a PSA 8 Clemente rookie they want to trade for a house?
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    Re: Corona-Market Madness

    Rhotch wrote:
    Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:26 am
    Heritage prices last night were nuts. I took down the t206 Lajoie portrait (for 20% more than it was worth but which needed to finish my set), but I had eyes for many others, all of which went for way more than I would have expected (even in today’s market). Seeing these prices, auction after auction, makes me feel like a should sell - we must be in a major bubble. But I don’t need the money right now and have no better alternative in which to put it anyway, so I won’t sell.
    Tease :)
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    Re: Corona-Market Madness

    It's a malevolent storm formed by a toxic confluence of fake sales that too many people selfishly want to believe in ("If that is worth X, then MY CARDS must be worth Y"), wannabe online Gordon Gekko "investment gurus" and their quick flipping lemming minions, who only view cards through the prism of money, huckster auctioneers hyping and hyping, ego-driven sticker whores, and sheer idle hands with nothing else to do but click.
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    Re: Corona-Market Madness

    CuriousGeorge wrote:
    Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:56 pm
    A lot of people have made a lot of money in the stock market these past 4 months. Interest rates are close to zero. You need places to invest your money to make some return. Stocks, real estate, bullion, what else? Modern prices are exploding. Why not invest in cards?
    But is this called investing?
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    Re: Corona-Market Madness

    I think it’s very difficult times right now and not just for the economy. If you need to invest your money somewhere do you buy Amazon at 3200 up 65% this year? Apple at 400 up 40%? Real estate with the concern that tenants can’t pay rent? I think in many ways investing in cards gives people a place to put money and sort of be able to kick the can down the road. Throw them in a safe, don’t have to deal with seeing the daily fluctuations up and down, and hope in 5-10 years or so it pays off. I’m not telling you I necessarily think it’s right or smart, but I know it’s not easy finding alternatives right now.

    The recent Trout and Lebron prices are all over the media now and that brings new people in. I have a very successful friend who asked me to help him find a nice Mantle rookie for his son’s birthday. He just turned 1. I think people feel safe with these cards and they get some diversification. I know I don’t want all of my money in the stock market right now.
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    Re: Corona-Market Madness

    Aquarian Sports Cards wrote:
    Fri Jul 31, 2020 1:27 pm
    Smells like 2015/16 vintage rookie phenomenon all over again to me... Anyone have a PSA 8 Clemente rookie they want to trade for a house?
    Doesn't feel like that at all to me? This seems much more widespread! Who'd have thunk that we'd ever get to the point where there aren't enough T206's to satisfy demand!!!!!
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    Re: Corona-Market Madness

    Cash works fine in this environment. Rather than looking for alternative of where to allocate your money sometimes it is better to sit with cash and let the alternatives find you.
    The only prices I watched last night were the 19th century cards. People were paying ridiculous premiums for high grade cards where, at least to me looking at the scans, the grades seemed troubling. The Ewing and Mascot seemed very narrow and the Robinson and Mann k-Bat had an "interesting" bottom border. Obviously, these were only impressions from the scans and you can't accurately assess cards this way, but I had enough questions to keep me on the sidelines for these items.
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    Re: Corona-Market Madness

    Cash even in an institutional money market is paying .21% so that’s $210 per $100K PER YEAR. I’m not sure that’s a viable alternative for many people. While cash is part of every portfolio for liquidity purposes, it’s not reasonable to receive a return of less than 1/4 of 1 percent. I wake of every day hoping some alternatives will find me and so far it’s not working so well.
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    Re: Corona-Market Madness

    ullmandds wrote:
    Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:51 pm
    Aquarian Sports Cards wrote:
    Fri Jul 31, 2020 1:27 pm
    Smells like 2015/16 vintage rookie phenomenon all over again to me... Anyone have a PSA 8 Clemente rookie they want to trade for a house?
    Doesn't feel like that at all to me? This seems much more widespread! Who'd have thunk that we'd ever get to the point where there aren't enough T206's to satisfy demand!!!!!
    I honestly feel that it's just a case of more people doing the same thing instead of the concerted effort of a small cabal. Plus things like the Gary V effect. May be a combination of factors, but it boils down to an artificial inflation that is going to come back down to Earth. Just hope I can get as much done for my consignors as possible before the correction.
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    Re: Corona-Market Madness

    Let's go back to my original question: when do you think these card prices will peak, or have they already peaked? What do you think will happen during Christmas time?
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    Re: Corona-Market Madness

    MattyC wrote:
    Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:29 pm
    It's a malevolent storm formed by a toxic confluence of fake sales that too many people selfishly want to believe in ("If that is worth X, then MY CARDS must be worth Y"), wannabe online Gordon Gekko "investment gurus" and their quick flipping lemming minions, who only view cards through the prism of money, huckster auctioneers hyping and hyping, ego-driven sticker whores, and sheer idle hands with nothing else to do but click.
    This may be true with more common and young cards, but I don’t think the W600 Young, t206 pink chase psa 7, and a totally overgraded but rare e92 crofts cobb in Heritage were fake sales last night. I think in some cases, cards have just gotten super expensive and I don’t know that there is malfeasance/criminality, stupidity, or hype? It’s hard to fake things when populations are super low, and I don’t recall anyone hyping a W600 Young. Perhaps there is shilling, but even not fake sales.

    Meanwhile, I have protected rare cards I own by bidding on other examples with every expectation to buy the card if it goes for less than a certain amount. This may be happening with some if these rare cards, but there is nothing wrong with that, so long as the card you are bidding on is not your consignment and you are prepared to buy the card. Look at my Claxton collection (a perfect example)
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    Re: Corona-Market Madness

    samosa4u wrote:
    Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:08 pm
    Let's go back to my original question: when do you think these card prices will peak, or have they already peaked? What do you think will happen during Christmas time?
    Honestly, who the hell knows!!! Things are so messed up right now, it’s impossible to draw any firm conclusions other than you can’t draw any firm conclusions.

    Personally, I am nervous about cash right now. The US just keeps spending and printing without any regard to fiscal responsibility. If the US was a company shareholders would be selling and creditors would be super nervous. I am nervous about hyper inflation.

    I have put a lot of money into cards in the last 4 years, and more so each successive year. I have seen quality cards go up in value for decades, I understand them (most of the time), I can touch them, they are a hedge against inflation, and I think the right cards are safer than most other alternatives. For these reasons, I look at all the auctions and participate actively in the right cards, even in this lunacy
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    Re: Corona-Market Madness

    CuriousGeorge wrote:
    Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:24 pm
    Cash even in an institutional money market is paying .21% so that’s $210 per $100K PER YEAR. I’m not sure that’s a viable alternative for many people. While cash is part of every portfolio for liquidity purposes, it’s not reasonable to receive a return of less than 1/4 of 1 percent. I wake of every day hoping some alternatives will find me and so far it’s not working so well.
    Steve-Personally, I would rather stay flat than buy assets at their highs hoping that’s they make new highs and I am nimble enough to lock those in. Zero is better than negative if you see negative as the most likely scenario. An old timer in Omaha has used this strategy pretty successfully over the years.
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    Re: Corona-Market Madness

    Rhotch wrote:
    Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:16 pm
    MattyC wrote:
    Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:29 pm
    It's a malevolent storm formed by a toxic confluence of fake sales that too many people selfishly want to believe in ("If that is worth X, then MY CARDS must be worth Y"), wannabe online Gordon Gekko "investment gurus" and their quick flipping lemming minions, who only view cards through the prism of money, huckster auctioneers hyping and hyping, ego-driven sticker whores, and sheer idle hands with nothing else to do but click.
    This may be true with more common and young cards, but I don’t think the W600 Young, t206 pink chase psa 7, and a totally overgraded but rare e92 crofts cobb in Heritage were fake sales last night. I think in some cases, cards have just gotten super expensive and I don’t know that there is malfeasance/criminality, stupidity, or hype? It’s hard to fake things when populations are super low, and I don’t recall anyone hyping a W600 Young. Perhaps there is shilling, but even not fake sales.

    Meanwhile, I have protected rare cards I own by bidding on other examples with every expectation to buy the card if it goes for less than a certain amount. This may be happening with some if these rare cards, but there is nothing wrong with that, so long as the card you are bidding on is not your consignment and you are prepared to buy the card. Look at my Claxton collection (a perfect example)
    Image
    I also think the rising tide lifts all the boats. How many of us pre-war guys have said well if a freakin' Lebron RC is worth that, what is a Cobb Cobb, or a BN Ruth worth? and then that logic spreads to other cards that more people can afford. You saw a similar, though more focused, phenomenon in the '15-'16 manipulation. Only a handful of specific cards were being actively manipulated but all the big vintage rookies were affected. I had a 1939 Play Ball set about 75% done in avg 5.63 but the Williams rookie went nuts so I gave up and sold it. in 2019 I could've afforded it again, now probably not, again.
    Scott Russell
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    Re: Corona-Market Madness

    Rhotch wrote:
    Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:28 pm
    samosa4u wrote:
    Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:08 pm
    Let's go back to my original question: when do you think these card prices will peak, or have they already peaked? What do you think will happen during Christmas time?
    Honestly, who the hell knows!!! Things are so messed up right now, it’s impossible to draw any firm conclusions other than you can’t draw any firm conclusions.

    Personally, I am nervous about cash right now. The US just keeps spending and printing without any regard to fiscal responsibility. If the US was a company shareholders would be selling and creditors would be super nervous. I am nervous about hyper inflation.

    I have put a lot of money into cards in the last 4 years, and more so each successive year. I have seen quality cards go up in value for decades, I understand them (most of the time), I can touch them, they are a hedge against inflation, and I think the right cards are safer than most other alternatives. For these reasons, I look at all the auctions and participate actively in the right cards, even in this lunacy
    When I say cash I don’t mean putting your money in the mattress. If you keep it in investment house money market accounts there is upside if inflation and interest rates rise. Unless these houses decide to “break the buck” there is no downside in absolute terms.
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    Re: Corona-Market Madness

    BTW, I hope baseball prices keep rising and disprove the saying that trees can’t grow to the sky. I had a pretty good mark-to-market gain last night based on Heritage’s results. However, I’m not prepared to bet on that trend continuing for any length of time. I’m usually pretty focused on only buying cards that fit my collection and not straying too far afield. However, in the past sometimes I did stray a little. In this environment I am hyper vigilant to only buy what fits my collection.
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    Re: Corona-Market Madness

    I don’t know how to quote only Jay’s post.

    Very true Jay - there are products where you can lock in the inflation ride (your money inflates), but the returns are garbage. That said, I totally agree that zero (or near zero) is sometimes a fine “return”.
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    Re: Corona-Market Madness

    Hi Ryan-I wasn’t even talking about TIPS, just ordinary investment house money market accounts.
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    Re: Corona-Market Madness

    Obviously making nothing or next to nothing is better than losing, but I don’t think anyone investing in a balanced portfolio of stocks, real estate or whatever else believes over the long term they are going to lose. And historically they have been proven correct. From my vantage point this explosion in card prices is not ending anytime soon. Even mid range common T206’s were selling for far over VCP prices last night and with that many items that’s real money coming in and not only manipulation. I had a couple cards i wanted and know I severely overpaid on one and somewhat overpaid on the other. I presume with many auctions this month prices will probably slow down a bit as money starts running dry but I think the trend is still up. Like any other market eventually there will be a correction but there just seems to be so much money coming in it could be awhile.
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    Re: Corona-Market Madness

    Money markets are paying close to zero. Sure there are some like Amex and Goldman that will give you 1% up to 4-5 million but 1% is pretty much the max rate right now. I know I would rather try and seek out an alternative and I think many people are doing the same. It’s the only explanation I can come up with why prices are flying in the middle of a pandemic. I know I paid hefty prices last night for the two cards I bought and one in particular was outright ridiculous.
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    Re: Corona-Market Madness

    Ryan, you go to the post you want to quote and click on the top right where the dots are and on the bottom it’ll say quote. Click on that and then the post will get quoted one your reply.
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    Re: Corona-Market Madness

    I just have to think, now that the government cheese has run out, at some point people are going to want to/have to sell to pay bills. Seems like the greater fool theory is at play here. It was like real estate 10 years ago. When your neighbor "Bubba" is telling you how he and his buddies are in the process of flipping all these properties, it ls a receipe for disaster.

    When it's so easy even a caveman can do it, run for the exits and guard your wallet!

    Goldin had 30 jordan rookies (ok some were the sticker). They arent rare in the least. I didnt research how recently they were purchased, or follow how the final price was, but it seems like a person/people are just flipping.

    I mean people realize Jordan still signs, just not his 86 fleer? His signed star RC auto sold for 40k or something ridiculous. I'm going to flight school.
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    Re: Corona-Market Madness

    EddieCranky wrote:
    Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:09 pm
    I just have to think, now that the government cheese has run out, at some point people are going to want to/have to sell to pay bills. Seems like the greater fool theory is at play here. It was like real estate 10 years ago. When your neighbor "Bubba" is telling you how he and his buddies are in the process of flipping all these properties, it ls a receipe for disaster.

    When it's so easy even a caveman can do it, run for the exits and guard your wallet!

    Goldin had 30 jordan rookies (ok some were the sticker). They arent rare in the least. I didnt research how recently they were purchased, or follow how the final price was, but it seems like a person/people are just flipping.

    I mean people realize Jordan still signs, just not his 86 fleer? His signed star RC auto sold for 40k or something ridiculous. I'm going to flight school.
    While I agree with most of what you've said here...I believe the gov't will produce more cheese!
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    Re: Corona-Market Madness

    ullmandds wrote:
    Sun Aug 02, 2020 2:44 am
    EddieCranky wrote:
    Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:09 pm
    I just have to think, now that the government cheese has run out, at some point people are going to want to/have to sell to pay bills. Seems like the greater fool theory is at play here. It was like real estate 10 years ago. When your neighbor "Bubba" is telling you how he and his buddies are in the process of flipping all these properties, it ls a receipe for disaster.

    When it's so easy even a caveman can do it, run for the exits and guard your wallet!

    Goldin had 30 jordan rookies (ok some were the sticker). They arent rare in the least. I didnt research how recently they were purchased, or follow how the final price was, but it seems like a person/people are just flipping.

    I mean people realize Jordan still signs, just not his 86 fleer? His signed star RC auto sold for 40k or something ridiculous. I'm going to flight school.
    While I agree with most of what you've said here...I believe the gov't will produce more cheese!
    Well soon a loaf of Wonder Bread will be $50 and bologna will be for the 1% :)
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    Re: Corona-Market Madness

    The government will soon come to the rescue like they usually do, especially in an election year. No way Trump is going down without pulling out every stop to ingratiate himself with voters.
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    Re: Corona-Market Madness

    EddieCranky wrote:
    Sun Aug 02, 2020 6:55 pm
    ullmandds wrote:
    Sun Aug 02, 2020 2:44 am
    EddieCranky wrote:
    Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:09 pm
    I just have to think, now that the government cheese has run out, at some point people are going to want to/have to sell to pay bills. Seems like the greater fool theory is at play here. It was like real estate 10 years ago. When your neighbor "Bubba" is telling you how he and his buddies are in the process of flipping all these properties, it ls a receipe for disaster.

    When it's so easy even a caveman can do it, run for the exits and guard your wallet!

    Goldin had 30 jordan rookies (ok some were the sticker). They arent rare in the least. I didnt research how recently they were purchased, or follow how the final price was, but it seems like a person/people are just flipping.

    I mean people realize Jordan still signs, just not his 86 fleer? His signed star RC auto sold for 40k or something ridiculous. I'm going to flight school.
    While I agree with most of what you've said here...I believe the gov't will produce more cheese!
    Well soon a loaf of Wonder Bread will be $50 and bologna will be for the 1% :)
    no doubt that you'd expect inflation with all this printing of money...but up to this point there seems to be no signs in the marketplace that anyone's concerned???? Good thing I don't eat bologna anymore!!!
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    Re: Corona-Market Madness

    Things are all whacked.

    On a side note, the Federal Estate tax exemption is at an all time high ($11.58mm). It is set to continue growing at CPI (or some comparable index) until 2024, after which it is set to go back to (I believe) $5mm. This means that under the current exemption a two-spouse family can potentially pass over $23mm to next generations without estate tax.

    If Trump does not get relected (no comment), and the Dems take the senate over the next 4 years (no comment), I am very confident that the exemption amount will be revised substantially downward. For this reason, I have spent the past few months getting my estate plan in order to maximize the exemption.

    I don’t know where to put money right now, but one thing is sure (now and for always), I do not want my money going to the government.
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